Keep predicting and you’ll be right eventually?

Sunny Ireland!

Douglas, Cork, in our best month, June, according to Ken Ring. (Photo: Renate Murphy, @renatemurphy)

Gah. Ken Bloody Ring is at it again.  I’m not going to link to his site, because he doesn’t deserve any more traffic.  But if you’re not familiar with him, he’s a New Zealand-based “long term weather prediction” “scientist”, who makes his money selling weather almanacs, that, he claims, accurately predict the weather for the coming year – down to the day – based on past records and lunar and solar cycles.  It all sounds very plausible, unless you apply logic and actual science.

He appears on our airwaves every year around this time (I predict he’ll be back for 2014!) and gets quoted in the press with his predictions for the coming year (always a good summer, so the radio stations will use it as a good news story).  The Irish Times, at least, calls him on it.  I’m off work today, and listening to the radio. Today FM were running this as their “last bit of the news/light relief” segment until 2pm, too.

I emailed them.  Cos, y’know, enough of the woo.  They replied, to say it was light relief and anyway, he was accurate.  So I checked.  And it turns out that no, he really isn’t accurate.  (They’ve since pulled the piece – whether that was down to me or not, I don’t know!)

Ring’s predictions for 2012 are, handily, still available from the aforementioned Today FM – http://media.todayfm.com/podcast/51156/

Ring said: “Snow in January.”
We had: none.

Ring said: “April the sunniest month, followed by June.”

Met Éireann says: “In contrast, June was extremely wet, with many rainfall totals in the eastern half  of  the country nearly triple their LTAs and the majority of  stations across the country reporting it as their wettest June on record.” and “The sunniest months relative to average were September and October, with June recording the least.”  (My emphasis).

April was twice as wet as normal and not as sunny as normal.

Ring said: “Serious rain day, 13th June, rest of the month good.”

Met Éireann said:
REPORTS FROM DUBLIN AIRPORT
Date Rainfall
(mm)
Max
Temp
(°C)
Min
Temp
(°C)
Grass Min Temp
(°C)
Mean Wind Speed (knots) Gusts
(if >= 34 knots)
Sunshine
(hours)
13/6/2012 0 14 9.7 6.6 5.4 0.2

Ring said: “July good for first 10 days and last week.”

Met Éireann said: July was the second wettest month of the year.

Ring said: “August, only 1 serious rain day.”

Met Éireann said: 5th wettest month, above average rainfall.

Ring said: “Not going to get the floods like you did last year.”

These videos from June, September and November beg to differ: http://url.ie/gqll

So he’s accurate – if your definition of accurate is “made some stuff up and got it absolutely and completely 100% wrong.”

You might say look, he’s predicting good weather, that’s good news, it’ll lift people’s spirits- but if people believe made up stuff like this and decide to stay at home or make plans on the basis of it, and he’s wrong again – well you’ll have some seriously depressed people come the end of summer.  It’s as useful as sending a sick person to a homeopath.

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3 thoughts on “Keep predicting and you’ll be right eventually?

  1. Pingback: Announcing Ken Ring Watch 2014 – #kenringwatch | Another Irishman's Diary

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