So true to form, my prediction from early last year came to pass – Ken bloody Ring reappeared on our airwaves, peddling his “weather almanacs”, that he claims are based on tides, the moon, and past events. Unfortunately, unlike 2013, I didn’t have time to go back and check his predictions for the year just over. But why don’t we try a little experiment for 2014? Let’s call it #kenringwatch.
On The Last Word, Ken Ring claims an accuracy of 80% to 85%. Which would be impressive if it were true. I don’t believe his claim, because, a) if he could get anything wrong in 2012, he did, and b) his “science” is, frankly, bullshit.
All he’s doing is drumming up traffic for his website and his real business of selling “almanacs”. But as Today FM and our other media outlets never seem to challenge him on his claims or past predictions, he gets away with it.
But we have his predictions for 2014 – reproduced below, and with links to the broadcasts and news stories (thanks to Joe Whyte for the links to Radio Kerry, which Joe posted in the comments on this Greenside Up post). So – let’s measure Ring’s predictions, month by month.
He makes 28 predictions, reproduced below. Ring claims 80% to 85% accuracy. (1) That means Ring needs to get between 22.4 to 23.8 of his predictions correct. Rounding, that’s 22 to 24 out of 28 predictions. Admittedly, some are vague. “The coming winter won’t be severe”, he said back in September – but what defines severe?
And some predictions are contradictory. He says on The Last Word that February’s snow won’t be heavy, but on Radio Kerry, he says it’ll be “intense.” Maybe that’s just in Kerry?
Anyway – we’ll measure his predictions here, month by month, and see how he fares. And maybe, just maybe, if he scores less than 50%, Matt Cooper will forego the “slow news day, what can we use as a filler, oh, let’s get Ken Ring on!” temptation in 2015?
Check back in early February, where we’ll see how he fared for January, and then month by month…
1. The coming winter (2013/14) won’t be severe (2)
2. No hotter than 25 or 26 degrees at any point in the year (1)
3. “Mr. Ring says that 2014 will bring in bitter cold temperatures of -10ºC as the new year is rung in.” (3)
4. Snow Jan 9th & 10th snow in midlands (1)
5. Heavy month for snow in terms of number of days of snow, but it won’t be heavy (1)
6. Snow on 5th and 6th (1)
7. Snow on 14th to 19th (1)
8. Most concentrated snow time of the winter (1)
9. Snow “Intense” from mid-February onwards (2) (how this squares with The Last Word, where he says it won’t be heavy, I’m not sure)
10. February expected to be bitterly cold and snowfalls expected around Valentine’s Day. (3)
11. Kerry, he says, may get the heaviest falls around Feb 17 to 19. (3)
12. March 3rd to 7th, light snow flurries (1)
13. Snow 19th and 20th (1)
14. Subzero(!) temperatures finish around April 19th (1)
15. Snow 22nd April (1)
16. Lots of sun, 14th to 20th/21st (1)
17. Snow 30th May (1)
18. 3rd week of may, very cold (subzero?) temperatures (1)
19. Last week of June the hottest (1)
20. Last week of July the hottest (1)
22. Lot of wet days interspersed with dry days. (1)
22. 8th to 30th, no rain anywhere (1)
23. 22 to 23 degrees, more in the 3rd week (1)
24. Not much sunshine except last week (1)
(Nothing said at all about October)
25. Mild temperatures up to November (1)
26. 19th November, subzeros back (1)
27. 4th to 9th, first snow of winter (1)
28. No white Christmas, but subzero on the 24th, 25th (1)