#kenringwatch results for February.

The month still has another day to run, but I’m posting the #kenringwatch results today as a) Ken Ring didn’t predict anything for the 28th, and b) I’m travelling tomorrow and won’t have access to a computer.

So, to remind ourselves, what we were to expect with an 85% degree of accuracy, according to Ken, was:

Feb
5. Heavy month for snow in terms of number of days of snow, but it won’t be heavy (1)
6. Snow on 5th and 6th (1)
7. Snow on 14th to 19th (1)
8. Most concentrated snow time of the winter (1)
9. Snow “Intense” from mid-February onwards (2) (how this squares with The Last Word, where he says it won’t be heavy, I’m not sure)
10. February expected to be bitterly cold and snowfalls expected around Valentine’s Day. (3)
11. Kerry, he says, may get the heaviest falls around Feb 17 to 19. (3)

So – snow, then. No mention of this:

The moon and tides should surely have warned Ken that this was on the way?

A screengrab of an interactive map of winds in the North Atlantic available at eath.nullschool.net

We had some snow!  The Journal reported on snow on the 1st February (although some of that may have been on the 31st January).

Searching for snow during February, I came across this RTÉ report from the 6th February – but it turns out to be archive footage of 40-year-old snow.

There was a smattering of snow on the 11th – but nothing to get excited about.

The Indo spotted some snow in Mayo, on the 14th of February, leaving a sub-editor stumped for a snow-related Valentine’s Day headline.

I’m now at the bottom of my third page of Google results for “snow in february 2014 ireland”, and as XKCD knows, that’s not a good place to be.  Kerry – no snow for you!

So how did we do?

Technically, Ken has scored on two of his predictions there – numbers 7 and 10.  Partially, anyway – snow on the 14th, but not on the 15th to the 19th.  Cold, yes, but “bitterly cold”?Not really.  The Met Éireann monthly report will tell us if it was anything out of the ordinary, but we’ll give Ken the points anyway.  But as we can’t really call this snow intense (and we’re not meant to, according to Ken’s comment on this post), I don’t think we can score him for prediction #9.

February: Two for seven.

Total: Two out of nine.

So two out of seven, or 28.5%.  Well, there’s an “8” and “5” in that number – but it’s no 85%.

But y’know, when Ken is on The Last Word or Radio Kerry telling us about the major things we need to know about the weather in the coming year, I’d be ok with him not mentioning the light snow, if he’d instead mention the worst storms Ireland has had this century, that lead to powercuts for over 215,000 people lasting many days, as well as the repeated flooding.  I’d think the people in Kerry might want to know about this storm, rather than a bit of snow, wouldn’t you?

Sources:(1)http://www.todayfm.com/player/podcasts/The_Last_Word_with_Matt_Cooper/The_Last_Word_with_Matt_Cooper/8455/0/ken_rings_2014_weather_predictions
(2) http://www.radiokerry.ie/news/new-zealand-weather-forecaster-predicts-a-typical-irish-winter/
(3) http://www.radiokerry.ie/news/forecaster-predicts-heavy-snowfall-in-kerry-in-february/

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Gay Marriage, Is Breda O’Brien really threatened ?????

This. A thousand times, this!

"I care because I care"

Image

Breda O’Brien writing in the Catholic Herald says…..that one of the main reasons that gay people want marriage rights is so that they can be registered as parents of children, either by adopting a partner’s children or by commissioning children through surrogacy, and/or egg or sperm donation.

No gay couple can bring children into their relationship without the assistance of at least one person of the opposite gender. This fundamental difference, with all the profound implications for children of being raised either without their mother, or their father, is supposed to be politely ignored so that adults can receive their ‘rights.’

This is an interesting if entirely flawed logic, the adoption/surrogacy/assisted reproduction industry has been providing children to straight, married couples since the inception of early adoption, gay people marrying will make no fundamental change to that position. 
If Breda O’Brien was genuine about her care for the…

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And now the Irish Times joins in with #kenringwatch

The Irish Times presumably have a research budget, which I suppose is one legitimate way of spending money to acquire a Ken Ring “weather almanac.”  Whatever the reason, they’ve bought one, and covered Ken’s predictions for the week just gone, here.  The story (which is mainly about the stormy weather we’ve been having and record high waves) tells us that Ken predicts:

a cold, mainly dry day in Dublin today [Monday 3rd] with wind and a chance of sleet or hail showers. Tomorrow [Tuesday 4th] will be overcast, cold, mostly dry with frosts and windy spells and Wednesday’s weather in Dublin, it adds, should be changeable with squally winds, showers of sleet and light snow.

Although I wouldn’t disagree that 8.5 degrees is cold, it rained cats and dogs on Monday (no sleet, no hail, just rain). Tuesday was sunny, and stopped being “mostly dry” when it rained constantly from just after 6pm.  Wednesday was pretty much more of the same (again, no sleet, no snow).  (All reports available from met.ie).

Mr Ring’s predictions for the whole month were:

5. Heavy month for snow in terms of number of days of snow, but it won’t be heavy (1)
6. Snow on 5th and 6th (1)
7. Snow on 14th to 19th (1)
8. Most concentrated snow time of the winter (1)
9. Snow “Intense” from mid-February onwards (2) (how this squares with The Last Word, where he says it won’t be heavy, I’m not sure)
10. February expected to be bitterly cold and snowfalls expected around Valentine’s Day. (3)
11. Kerry, he says, may get the heaviest falls around Feb 17 to 19. (3)

One third of the way through the month and things aren’t looking too good for these predictions, though we’re a few days out from the “intense” snow days of the middle of the month.

No mention of any of those floods in Cork, Limerick and elsewhere, though.  Oh well.

Dear TV Licence Payer,

“Thank you for your mail.”

Nice polite start.

“The Saturday Night Show in question is the subject of a legal complaint and we regret that for that reason we are unable to comment any further on the programme, or matters relating to it.  For this reason RTÉ is not in a position to respond substantively to your mail.”

Wait, so if it’s the subject of legal complaint, why has compensation already been paid? Wouldn’t that imply that legal avenues have been finished, that a court case was taken, or a settlement was agreed on the basis of legal advice, perhaps even on – as is traditional – the steps of the High Court?  And that therefore, you can respond substantively to my mail, you’re just choosing not to.

“However we would like to assure you that your correspondence and that of others on this topic will be circulated to senior editorial management and that RTÉ takes audience feedback very seriously.

Yours sincerely,

Maria Doogan
RTÉ Broadcast Compliance”

I find myself less than convinced…

Disclaimer: The information in this e-mail is confidential and may be legally privileged. It is intended solely for the addressee. Access to this e-mail by anyone else is unauthorised. If you are not the intended recipient, any disclosure, copying, distribution, or any action taken or omitted to be taken in reliance on it, is prohibited and may be unlawful. Please note that emails to, from and within RTÉ may be subject to the Freedom of Information Act 1997 and may be liable to disclosure.”

Legalistic, meaningless, unenforceable disclaimer.

It’s ironic, though.  I supported marriage equality, but wasn’t actively doing anything to help bring it about. The bollocks being perpetrated by the Iona Institute and their friends in high places in RTÉ, though… well, there’s a donation from me to Marriage Equality Ireland on the way, as a direct result of their censorship, followed by an apology to the wrong party.  (You can donate too, here.)