#kenringwatch results for February.

The month still has another day to run, but I’m posting the #kenringwatch results today as a) Ken Ring didn’t predict anything for the 28th, and b) I’m travelling tomorrow and won’t have access to a computer.

So, to remind ourselves, what we were to expect with an 85% degree of accuracy, according to Ken, was:

5. Heavy month for snow in terms of number of days of snow, but it won’t be heavy (1)
6. Snow on 5th and 6th (1)
7. Snow on 14th to 19th (1)
8. Most concentrated snow time of the winter (1)
9. Snow “Intense” from mid-February onwards (2) (how this squares with The Last Word, where he says it won’t be heavy, I’m not sure)
10. February expected to be bitterly cold and snowfalls expected around Valentine’s Day. (3)
11. Kerry, he says, may get the heaviest falls around Feb 17 to 19. (3)

So – snow, then. No mention of this:

The moon and tides should surely have warned Ken that this was on the way?

A screengrab of an interactive map of winds in the North Atlantic available at eath.nullschool.net

We had some snow!  The Journal reported on snow on the 1st February (although some of that may have been on the 31st January).

Searching for snow during February, I came across this RTÉ report from the 6th February – but it turns out to be archive footage of 40-year-old snow.

There was a smattering of snow on the 11th – but nothing to get excited about.

The Indo spotted some snow in Mayo, on the 14th of February, leaving a sub-editor stumped for a snow-related Valentine’s Day headline.

I’m now at the bottom of my third page of Google results for “snow in february 2014 ireland”, and as XKCD knows, that’s not a good place to be.  Kerry – no snow for you!

So how did we do?

Technically, Ken has scored on two of his predictions there – numbers 7 and 10.  Partially, anyway – snow on the 14th, but not on the 15th to the 19th.  Cold, yes, but “bitterly cold”?Not really.  The Met Éireann monthly report will tell us if it was anything out of the ordinary, but we’ll give Ken the points anyway.  But as we can’t really call this snow intense (and we’re not meant to, according to Ken’s comment on this post), I don’t think we can score him for prediction #9.

February: Two for seven.

Total: Two out of nine.

So two out of seven, or 28.5%.  Well, there’s an “8” and “5” in that number – but it’s no 85%.

But y’know, when Ken is on The Last Word or Radio Kerry telling us about the major things we need to know about the weather in the coming year, I’d be ok with him not mentioning the light snow, if he’d instead mention the worst storms Ireland has had this century, that lead to powercuts for over 215,000 people lasting many days, as well as the repeated flooding.  I’d think the people in Kerry might want to know about this storm, rather than a bit of snow, wouldn’t you?

(2) http://www.radiokerry.ie/news/new-zealand-weather-forecaster-predicts-a-typical-irish-winter/
(3) http://www.radiokerry.ie/news/forecaster-predicts-heavy-snowfall-in-kerry-in-february/


2 thoughts on “#kenringwatch results for February.

  1. To be fair, Ken did correctly predict, in his comments in January, that you would find fault with his forecasts. You’ve certainly done that.

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