#kenringwatch is like waiting on a bus – nothing for ages, then three come along at once. Results for June, July and August are finally here – apologies for the delay.
In related news, Jamie points out in the comments on the May results post that Ken Ring is actually less accurate than a coin toss. His work is available on the Silly Beliefs website – where an article on Ring’s pseudoscience has resulted in over 550 comments being posted!
Those comments are an interesting read… disappearing posts after the fact, other major misses, and failures to predict major events. But then that’s only to be expected.
Ring has also popped up again recently in the comments to my original 2014 #kenringwatch post, where he says:
“I have also had a fair degree of success for this year with my Ireland almanac. I said no records would be broken this year and no extreme events would be likely.”
He forgot Christine and her sisters… the most severe storms to hit Ireland in years. Or that his accuracy for 2014’s Irish weather predictions is currently languishing at 20%.
Anyway – June, July, August. The predictions were:
19. Last week of June the hottest.
20. Last week of July the hottest.
22. Lot of wet days interspersed with dry days.
So, two easily testable predictions, and one completely vague one.
June: “The majority of highest maxima were recorded between the 16th and 18th during the mid-month period of high pressure, with the highest maximum of 27.1°C recorded at Newport, Co. Mayo on the 17th.” Zero marks.
July: “Nearly all highest maxima were recorded between the 23rd and 25th, with the month’s highest temperature recorded at Carlow (Oak Park) on the 25th with 27.6°C.” Ooh, close – the 25th is seven days from the end of the month, so one of the hottest days was technically within the last week. Let’s be generous and give half a mark.
August: How do you interpret “Lots of wet days interspersed with dry days”? The Met Éireann monthly report has a one-line summary: “Dry in parts but extremely wet in the East; cool everywhere ” Other stations in the Dublin area and at Mullingar reported their wettest August days in 28 to 64 years, with rainfall analysis of their 24-hour totals reporting the events to have rainfall return periods of between five and 20 years. Dublin Airport, in the east had 20 rain days, 11 with no rain. Claremorris, in the west, had 26 rain days, only 5 with no rain. So, certainly, “lots of wet days” is correct. I think Ken gets this one. But it would have been nice if he’d said “Wettest August in years!”
June, July, August: One and a half for three.
Total: Four and a half out of eighteen.
We’re up to 25% accuracy!