#kenringwatch results for November, December and 2014!

Happy New Year!  With the old year now over, we can look back at Ken Ring’s final predictions for the winter, his “overall” predictions for the year, and how he did in total.

So the last few predictions – sorry, he’s calling them “suggestions of potential” now – for #kenringwatch 2014, were as follows:

Nov
25. Mild temperatures up to November (1)
26. 19th November, subzeros back (1)

Dec
27. 4th to 9th, first snow of winter (1)
28. No white Christmas, but subzero on the 24th, 25th (1)

How did Mr Ring do?

25. Yes, absolutely, this autumn and winter have been mild.  In fact, Met Éireann tells us “Many stations recorded their highest maximum temperatures for winter in 6 to 15 years. Lowest minimum temperatures were the highest for winter on record at many
stations, Shannon Airport reported its highest minimum for winter in 68 years” (2) 
I might put that down to climate change – Ken would disagree, as would, according to him, most Irish farmers, who are immortal, or something, and know all of this is just cycles

Regardless of the reasoning, though, that’s definitely a point for Ken.

26. Ah, I love these black or white predictions. The Met Éireann report for November tells us that November was “Typical for the time of year, milder at the start of the month.”  That report tells us that the 19th was a perfectly average day for the month – minimum temperatures between 5 and 10 degrees Centigrade, max between 10 and 15.  Certainly not subzero.

November: One for two.

27. The monthly report for December hasn’t been published yet on Met Éireann, which means checking various weather stations for particular dates.  Let’s pick Cork, Dublin, and Shannon Airports, and Malin Head. Checking them each day from the 4th to the 9th, we find:

Cork: Too warm for snow and/or little to no precipitation;
Dublin: Same;
Shannon: Same;
Malin Head: Yes, same.

No snow. No points.

We then got a cold snap and severe winter storm, which Ken didn’t mention. That brought snow – but it didn’t arrive until the 11th, didn’t last long, and only hit a few counties.

28. Ken was correct about no white Christmas, but the lowest temperature recorded over both days at the aforementioned weather stations was 0.8 degrees Centigrade.  Predicting no white Christmas is a banker (it very rarely is), but them’s the breaks.  Half a point.

December: 0.5 for two.

Ken also made two “general” predictions that we couldn’t measure until the year was over:

1. The coming winter (2013/14) won’t be severe (3)
2. No hotter than 25 or 26 degrees at any point in the year (1)

1. Looking back to the Winter 2013/2014 report for this one. The report headline tells us: “Stormy at times; wettest winter on record”.  Under the various headings, it goes into more detail: “Over 50% of stations across the country reported it was the wettest winter on record. Valentia Observatory reported its wettest winter since records began in 1866 (148 years) with 848.0mm and 183% of LTA, while Malin Head reported 530.7mm, 164% of LTA its wettest winter since records began in 1885 (129 years). Shannon Airport had its wettest winter on record (68 years) while Mullingar reported its wettest winter on record (63 years).”  Similarly, for wind speed, we’re told: “Winds were above average for winter with storm force winds on occasions. Dublin Airport’s winter mean windspeed value of 14.4 knots (26 km/h) was its highest since 1943 (71 years), Shannon Airport reported its highest winter mean windspeed in 31 years” and “The highest gust of the season was 86 knots (159 km/h) at Shannon Airport on the 12th February, its highest for winter on record (68 years).” , and “A new record maximum wave of 25 metres was reported at the Kinsale Energy Gas Platform on February 12th.” 

These records were due to the series of severe storms that arrived in January and February, and about which Ken said nothing.  But a picture paints a thousand words:

Lahinch Promenade during January storm

Lahinch promenade during one of January’s storms. Photo by George Karbus, http://www.emerald-vision.com/

Zero points.

2. Most annual highest maxima were recorded during July. The year’s highest temperature
was 31.0°C recorded at Dooks, Co Kerry on Saturday, July 19th, the stations second
highest maximum since it opened in 1997.  Five degrees higher than predicted – so, zero points.

“Overall” category: Zero for two.

Total for the year: Seven for twenty-eight. 25% accuracy, exactly.

Ken Ring claims 80% to 85% accuracy, but it turns out that when you record his predictions, and check back, then being generous, he’s right one time in four, on average.  Half as accurate as a coin-toss.

Conclusions:

1) Moon and tides are of no use whatsoever in predicting the weather.

2) Spending €50 plus postage and packing for an almanac that’s right (presumably) one time in four would not appear to be a good investment.

“It’s just a bit of harmless fun” is sometimes repeated by reputable journalists as a reason for allowing Ken Ring to use their publication or programme to publicise his almanac.  Well, he can’t be done under the Trade Descriptions Act (or else Old Moore’s Almanac would be out of business) – but he is selling his pseudoscience “predictions” at €50 a shot and claims to be selling 1,000 a year.  Which would be great if it was accurate, but not when the accuracy is only half as good as a coin-toss.  In my opinion, file under crank, snake-oil, or charlatan.  If you must invite him on to your show to fill a slow news day, then also invite on a pseudoscience skeptic, or a spokesman from Met Éireann. I suggest Evelyn Cusack.

Source: RTE Player screengrab via thejournal.ie

Source: RTE Player screengrab via thejournal.ie

Sources:

(1) http://www.todayfm.com/player/podcasts/The_Last_Word_with_Matt_Cooper/The_Last_Word_with_Matt_Cooper/8455/0/ken_rings_2014_weather_predictions

(2) http://www.met.ie/climate/MonthlyWeather/clim-2014-win.pdf 

(3) http://www.radiokerry.ie/news/new-zealand-weather-forecaster-predicts-a-typical-irish-winter/

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39 thoughts on “#kenringwatch results for November, December and 2014!

  1. Excellent, well done … You should go head to head with him for next year and present your own predictions and see who scores best… 🙂
    You only have to beat 25%

  2. How funny. You are just like Evelyn, feeling so threatened by your/her own fear of what you both don’t know that you can’t leave the subject alone. Met Eireann have called me a “thorn in their side”. I would not be if I was inaccurate but my method’s track record speaks for itself.
    Yes, my book, thank you so much for endlessly promoting it. As you say, it is €50 for 500 pages. At 365 predictions that’s 7 pages for a pd, excellent value. Again you draw attention to the fact that our book, which takes about half a year to write, sells well. Funny that. According to you all those repeat buyers must be deluded. And all the radio station hosts. And RTE who have hosted Sype interviews. And all the newspapers in Ireland that seek interviews from me. Hmm.. the one out of step could just be you.
    You have admitted I got the good summer right, the wet autumn right, and now the mild winter right. What’s left? I see Evelyn repeated the dire warnings of James Madden, worst winter in 100 years etc etc etc and sent everyone into states of fear. Why don’t you tackle her? After all, you are paying for her.
    If you don’t like my work, JUST DON’T READ IT. But no, PLEASE keep on dissing me and sending new unique browsers to my website to see what your fuss is all about. Seriously though, you need a new whipping boy.

  3. Ken really is hopeless…

    Today I read:

    “A medium-adverse drought event will be declared in the South Island today.
    Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy will today meet with South Canterbury farmers to make the declaration and announce a Government assistance package.”

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11400781

    Here’s what he said during a Radio interview last month:
    http://www.farmingshow.com/shows/the-rabobank-best-of-the-farming-show/audio/best-of-the-farming-show-24th-january-ken-ring/

    Will he admit he was wrong this time? Doubt it.

    Jamie

    • Oh dear, you’d better take a look at this
      http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_bw.shtml
      The big front crossing the South island tomorrow is right on cue, and what I was referring to in my boroadcast. And that’s all I predict – the potential for weather events. I know you must be gutted everytime my method gets this sort of thing correct, from a year away, but try to find the grace once in a while to give credit where due. Otherwise you just bring yourself discredit. And try to go in peace rather than as a troublemaker.
      regards
      Ken

    • Oh sure, anyone can quote fascist forums that seek to shut down any alternative religious, medical or political viewpoints, on the grounds that if they are not mainstream they must by definition wrong, evil and blasphemic. That’s the kind of society your favourite forum says they want. You believe them? We threw that idea of a world out with Hitler, and now we are facing preventing the forcing of the same restrictive view of the world by Middle East radicals. Yet you sound as fundamentalist as they are. Have you even studied lunar methods? I say I am not an astrologer and am doing investigative science, but your fascist mates say I am not, yet you believe them over me. What’s going on with you?
      Oh and probably isn’t much of interest you but I got the forecast correct for today. The east of the South Island had some rain, first in several weeks, just as predicted nearly 2 years ago, which was when the almanac was written.
      http://ecan.govt.nz/services/online-services/monitoring/rainfall/Pages/rainfall-south-canterbury.aspx
      Those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones. But thanks as always for the opportunity to demonstrate that the lunar method works.

  4. For other readers here. “nzjamie” is one of this country’s more persistent public nuisances. His modus operandi is ad hominen in many blogs. No one attacks him first, or by name, the rebukes all go one way, which says much more about him and his sorry life than what he writes. He offers no constructive crtique, nor rational science discussion, and also joins up with other sceptics who run blogs. That appears to be, for him and his colleagues who always hide furtively behind nom de plumes, their lives’ purpose. It typifies the tall-poppy syndrome.and is one of the factors causing huge disfavour about scientists in the eyes of the public, especially the farmers I mix with, who do wish for genuine debate. Instead, self-appointed Thought Police like Jamie try, through blogs like Hot Topic to tell everyone what to think, what views everyone must believe, and what not to buy. They are perceived as troublemakers in this country because they contribute zilch to society.
    No, I did not profit from the Christchurch earthquakes – exactly the opposite – I turned down two magazine article interviews (New Idea and Womans Weekly) that offered 3-figure sums purely so I did not profit from a tragedy. I had speaking engagements in Christchurch which I cancelled so as not to contribute to the public strain. I was only interviewed on media (TV3) once which was for 10 minutes, in the 10 months between September 2010 and July 2011, and the interviewer did most of the talking. I refused all other media requests, so it can hardly be said I was publicity seeking. But those who did profit from the national catastrophe were the high profile scientists (Jamie’s mates), the state-appointed assessors, the media and the administrators, who competed for high sums of public funds.
    I predicted, via tweets at least a week beforehand, each of the major 4 shakes, using the lunar method. The tweets are on public recird, on my website and on my twitter account. It was so successful that because people left town on the appointed days which saved many lives, the media and scientific world went bananas.
    I did it all for free, as I still do with my 10,000-member free newsletter. On the other hand, not one geologist has ever predicted an earthquake. I attack no one, yet many attack me. So who is the bully? When are perople going to get over themselves and grow up? If you don’t like what I say, turn your eyes away, don’t read it. But many thousands do. So should I listen to the many who get something from my work, or the tiny handful who don’t understand the science of it and want me gone because they won’t address their own ignorance-fear of something alternative?

    • Gee, what a rant.
      Perhaps you should take your own advice Ken and not visit this blog, or my comments…
      “If you don’t like what I say, turn your eyes away, don’t read it.”
      But you can’t help yourself, can you?

  5. Ken, you say Jamie is perceived as a troublemaker in this country. This is lies whereas for your reputation, you even had government ministers speaking out against your rabble. You go into attack mode on people when others are criticising your opinions and how little they reflect real life, both into the future predictions and into the past. You missed the drought in NZ last year, and it looks like you did again this time. Perhaps hedge your bets for 2016, and you might have more chance of being right than your previous and consistent failures.

    Regards

    The thought police

  6. No drought last year, Thought Police, so nothing to miss. Rain today and tomorrow in the metservice forecast for Kaikoura, so some ‘drought’ relief there. I said no drought, same as Weather Watch (who get my newsletters anyway), and even NIWA expressed their doubts. I said rain was coming and it came. You clearly don’t live here or don’t watch the news. Yes, I do go into attack mode when people attack me first. Doesn’t everyone? I can’t stand bullies, they are the scum of the earth. You seem to think that you can lay into someone who is quietly going about his business, and when he responds you call the victim the perpetrator. It’s on a par with ‘oh she made me rape her because of what she was wearing’..And is this the NZ weather forum now? Well, bring it on. Saw your silly book “Hot Topic’ in a one dollar sale bin yesterday. No takers.

  7. I live in NZ, and remember last week when Primary Industries Minister Nathan Guy declared a medium-scale drought for most of the eastern South Island.
    But I guess this doesn’t fit your narrative. And because its not matching your 2015 book, he is bullying you too.
    Ken, I haven’t “layed into” you at all, but simply your inaccuracy.
    I don’t know you, apart from the occasional times I have seen you in the media.
    So, if you perceive me saying “Drought” as a personal attack, that’s your issue. Last years Ken Blog was “is a drought imminent? The answers no.” That was wrong, as the drought lasted for months thru to May. But I guess you don’t visit the Waikato or Taraniki or Northland areas much..
    And in answer to “is this an NZ weather forum now”. The answer is no!!
    Its a comment page on a blog called the Irishmans diary. 🙂 Who evaluated your predictions/opinions to what actually happened.
    That’s what comments are for, you choose to come here, its not your website, so you don’t control what’s published on it, . But its an interesting place to see how useless your predictions/opinions are no matter where you are in the world, be it Ireland, Australia or New Zealand.

    You have your websites and books and write what ever you want there, but don’t expect to be unchallenged elsewhere. so don’t get so upset Don’t take this as an insult but you are not infallible and your opinions should be examined, just like the original blog author did, and many many others do in NZ and around the world.
    And what is this “Hot Topic” which you say is my silly book? I am not the author of it.

    I am the thought police.

  8. No, there was no drought that lasted until May. North Waikato was dry as usual, and the farmers I am in contact with were not too worried. There are dry conditions each summer in NZ, as anyone would know who lives here, such as we get every summer and especially in the traditionally dry regions, but nothing longlasting. That is why I questioned where you live. It is not the summer dryness that I define as drought, but the NIWA 3-month definition of no rain. And the drought this year is also so far an extended dry period, although rain over the past week has been relieving that dryness. I never said I was infallible, but thanks for wanting me to be so. Weather will always be an inexact science. But ask yourself why farmers buy my forecasts. Ask yourself why my almanacs have been going for 17 years. Do you know something they don’t? Doesn’t that insult their collective intelligence??

    • Just keep making stuff up to suit your imaginary ring world, Your books are worthless, I’d have better luck flipping a coin. Back your clams up with facts, don’t change your predictions after the event. It is irreverent what you call a drought, the dictionary calls a drought ‘A long period of abnormally low rainfall, especially one that adversely affects growing or living conditions’. You are a con artist who sells worthless opinion to gullible people and when people call you on it you resort to calling people names and bullying them as you cannot use facts to back up your claims, because the facts just show how wrong you are. 17 years proves that there are still people out there who fall for your scam. The Bible has been around for over 2000 years,and has millions more readers than you ever will, still don’t make it true. You are not infallible, you are just less correct than tossing a coin.

  9. Ken, you are making up the NIWA definition of a drought. You say “3 month of no rain”

    Rain doesn’t break a drought, it needs to be more than a showers.

    Niwa say on

    https://www.niwa.co.nz/education-and-training/schools/students/drought

    “What is a drought?

    A drought is a sustained period of low rainfall so that soil moisture is insufficient for plant growth. Depending on the time of the year, it can take from two weeks to three months with insufficient rainfall before this criterion is met.”

    slightly different to you, so no wonder you say there was no drought last year. Insufficient Rain vs your “no rain”

    Ken, I am not your average almanac buyer, so your redefinitions of words such as Niwa terms is a waste of time,…. Did you not think I would know what a drought is? Are you that unaware?

  10. Maybe Ken is right!!!!!!

    or maybe, NIWA (whom he quoted) now are against him too…

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/agribusiness/66084122/drought-declared-for-larges-swathes-of-south-island

    published Feb 2015…

    Ken can have opinion, but the facts don’t change..

    I love the comments to the article where someone says

    “That can’t be right. Ken Ring said there’d be lots of rain. Don’t tell me astrology doesn’t work…I’m so disillusioned.”

    🙂

  11. No one knows what a drought is because it changes according to opinion. In WA a drought is 2 years of no rain. In Java it is 2 weeks. A drought in the South Island, such as the “medium scale” event as described yesterday, is not the same as it might be for Hawkes Bay a few hundred kilometres up the road. Many farmers in Australia receive both drought and flood relief at the same time. It is not crazy, it is political. They qualify for drought relief when below threshold rain falls, and flood relief when the ground is covered with water from a neighbouring State. It is a question of definition, usually that federal funding can be applied for. The drought area in NZ has had good rain in the past week. Not that I begrudge farmers whatever handouts they can get. I have worked on farms. Farming is tough anywhere, and it is still the backbone of our economy. If our farms do well, so do the rest of us. But don’t tell me you know what a drought is, that just shows me you need to do more research. It’s like saying you know what love or unhappiness is. Well, good for you. But others might disagree.

  12. Ken states “No one knows what a drought is because it changes according to opinion.”
    Not sure how to take that… it seems to go against my training. and fires off a B/S detector or two around the office.

    NIWA and MPI define a drought in NZ not you Ken.

    Based on their definitions and declarations last week many parts on the SI are in drought condition.

    But because it doesn’t match the Kendefinition, it’s not.

  13. In one post, Ken states

    ” It is not the summer dryness that I define as drought, but the NIWA 3-month definition of no rain.”

    then a few posts later he says

    “No one knows what a drought is because it changes according to opinion.”

    I will let everyone else be the judge 🙂

  14. That’s a pretty generalised statement Ken.
    I’m guessing the same minority group of Farmers that say that, also think you’re onto something – right?
    Whereas the rest of the Farmers (along with most of the population in vocations other than Farming) believe that you are a Charlatan who’s “opinions” are about as meaningless as a coin toss.

    • Typical Ken, Slings the insults around with gay abandon, ad hominem attacks all over his missives, but when he gets shown to be an idiot he packs his little temper trantrum in his wee kitbag and storms off. He sounds like a coward to me. And we now know that he has been a farmer as well as fortune teller for cats, mathematics teacher, failed university student, astrologer and fiction writer. So much packed into such a meaningless life!

      • The really ironic thing was it had been predicted that he would do exactly that!

        Don’t forget the dolphins sonic locating by using the moon!

  15. New update, the Farming Show host has emailed me “I apologize unreservedly for..not showing respect”
    Read the comments. People are appalled and disgusted that in this day and age media and scientists want to close down alternative opinion. Witch-burning continues. Shame on Jamie Morris and co.

    • At least you have declared on air Ken that you are a forecaster (and we have it recorded), unlike what you said to the Advertising Standards Board where you denied it explicitly, using the weasily and meaningless expression “I only give opinions about possibilities”. Methinks it it time for someone to put in another complaint, noting your duplicity, so you have to take down your misleading website.

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