So true to form, my prediction from early last year came to pass – Ken bloody Ring reappeared on our airwaves, peddling his “weather almanacs”, that he claims are based on tides, the moon, and past events. Unfortunately, unlike 2013, I didn’t have time to go back and check his predictions for the year just over. But why don’t we try a little experiment for 2014? Let’s call it #kenringwatch.
On The Last Word, Ken Ring claims an accuracy of 80% to 85%. Which would be impressive if it were true. I don’t believe his claim, because, a) if he could get anything wrong in 2012, he did, and b) his “science” is, frankly, bullshit.
All he’s doing is drumming up traffic for his website and his real business of selling “almanacs”. But as Today FM and our other media outlets never seem to challenge him on his claims or past predictions, he gets away with it.
But we have his predictions for 2014 – reproduced below, and with links to the broadcasts and news stories (thanks to Joe Whyte for the links to Radio Kerry, which Joe posted in the comments on this Greenside Up post). So – let’s measure Ring’s predictions, month by month.
He makes 28 predictions, reproduced below. Ring claims 80% to 85% accuracy. (1) That means Ring needs to get between 22.4 to 23.8 of his predictions correct. Rounding, that’s 22 to 24 out of 28 predictions. Admittedly, some are vague. “The coming winter won’t be severe”, he said back in September – but what defines severe?
Lahinch promenade during one of January’s storms. Photo by George Karbus, http://www.emerald-vision.com/ (Not severe, per Ken Ring).
And some predictions are contradictory. He says on The Last Word that February’s snow won’t be heavy, but on Radio Kerry, he says it’ll be “intense.” Maybe that’s just in Kerry?
Anyway – we’ll measure his predictions here, month by month, and see how he fares. And maybe, just maybe, if he scores less than 50%, Matt Cooper will forego the “slow news day, what can we use as a filler, oh, let’s get Ken Ring on!” temptation in 2015?
Check back in early February, where we’ll see how he fared for January, and then month by month…
The predictions:
Overall:
1. The coming winter (2013/14) won’t be severe (2)
2. No hotter than 25 or 26 degrees at any point in the year (1)
Jan
3. “Mr. Ring says that 2014 will bring in bitter cold temperatures of -10ºC as the new year is rung in.” (3)
4. Snow Jan 9th & 10th snow in midlands (1)
Feb
5. Heavy month for snow in terms of number of days of snow, but it won’t be heavy (1)
6. Snow on 5th and 6th (1)
7. Snow on 14th to 19th (1)
8. Most concentrated snow time of the winter (1)
9. Snow “Intense” from mid-February onwards (2) (how this squares with The Last Word, where he says it won’t be heavy, I’m not sure)
10. February expected to be bitterly cold and snowfalls expected around Valentine’s Day. (3)
11. Kerry, he says, may get the heaviest falls around Feb 17 to 19. (3)
Mar
12. March 3rd to 7th, light snow flurries (1)
13. Snow 19th and 20th (1)
Apr
14. Subzero(!) temperatures finish around April 19th (1)
15. Snow 22nd April (1)
May
16. Lots of sun, 14th to 20th/21st (1)
17. Snow 30th May (1)
18. 3rd week of may, very cold (subzero?) temperatures (1)
Jun
19. Last week of June the hottest (1)
Jul
20. Last week of July the hottest (1)
Aug
22. Lot of wet days interspersed with dry days. (1)
Sep
22. 8th to 30th, no rain anywhere (1)
23. 22 to 23 degrees, more in the 3rd week (1)
24. Not much sunshine except last week (1)
Oct
(Nothing said at all about October)
Nov
25. Mild temperatures up to November (1)
26. 19th November, subzeros back (1)
Dec
27. 4th to 9th, first snow of winter (1)
28. No white Christmas, but subzero on the 24th, 25th (1)
Sources:
(2) http://www.radiokerry.ie/news/new-zealand-weather-forecaster-predicts-a-typical-irish-winter/
(3) http://www.radiokerry.ie/news/forecaster-predicts-heavy-snowfall-in-kerry-in-february/
Another Irishman's Diary 
Excellent idea! Looking forward to seeing how things work out this year!
Thanks. I’m hoping he’s drastically wrong, of course – if only so we’ve a better chance of another decent summer!
Well, first off, I didn’t say most of those things.
What I did say, if anyone is interested is this
1. The coming winter (2013/14) is unlikely to be severe, meaning nothing like 2010, no great snowdumps when traffic can’t get through for many weeks etc
2. No hotter in most places than 26 degrees at any point in the year, although some may get close to 30C in the last week of July, it’ll probably only last for a couple of days and won’t be any heatwave.
Jan
3. 2014 could bring in cold temperatures of perhaps up to -10ºC in the north in the first 10 days of January.
4. Moderate snowfall possible (nothing is ever definite in weather forecasting) within a day or so of Jan 9th & 10th in midlands
Feb
5. The wintriest month in terms of number of days of snow, but it unlikely to be heavy or sustained
6. Chances of light snow on 5th and 6th in Midlands
7. Chances of moderate snow on 14th to 17th and heavier 18th-19th
8. Most concentrated snow time of the winter
9. “Snow “Intense” from mid-February onwards (2) (how this squares with The Last Word, where he says it won’t be heavy, I’m not sure)”
Try not to pick minute holes in the language. I am going for the timing, not the amounts.
10. February expected to be wintry cold and snowfalls expected around Valentine’s Day. (3)
11. When it comes to the southern counties Kerry,may get the heaviest falls around Feb 17 to 19.
Mar
12. March 3rd to 7th, possible light snow flurries in midlands
13. Same around 19th and 20th
Apr
14. Subzero(!) temperatures FOR APRIL finish around April 19th (more coming in May)
15. Light snow possible in midlands 22nd April, give or take a day
May
16. Lots of sun, 14th to 20th/21st (1)
17. Light snow 30th May possible in Midlands
18. 3rd week of May, subzero frost-producing temperatures but not severe
Jun
19. Last week of June among warmest temps
Jul
20. Last week of July also among warmest temps, this will vary from county to county
Aug
22. Lot of wet days interspersed with dry days.
Sep
22. 8th to 30th, little or no rain for most counties
23. Chance of up to 22 to 23 degrees in midlands, scattered around-20s in the 3rd week
24. Not much sunshine except last week (1)
Oct
(Nothing said at all about October) Wasn’t asked. A fairly grey and wet month.
Nov
25. Mild temperatures first half of November
26. 19th November, subzeros back for midlands, also last few days
Dec
27. 4th to 9th, first snow of winter (1)
28. No white Christmas, but subzero on the 24th, 25th (1)
Well, Mr. Ring, I’ve linked to the podcasts, so people can judge for themselves whether or what I reported you as saying is accuate or not. I maintain I reported the predictions accurately.
Your modified version in the above comment introduces some prevarication – e.g., for September, on the Last Word, you _did_ say “no rain anywhere.” Above, you change that to “little or no rain for most counties” – which is another kettle of fish altogether. Some rain for some counties is very different to no rain…
Anyway, either way, we’ve a year of predictions to measure. Hopefully you score better than 2012…
Your agenda seems to be to search for fault. Well, of course you will find it. I predict you will not attempt the same rigorous analysis of Met Eireann, yet you pay their wages. You get mine for free. Somewhere along the line you have decided that 20% inaccurate = 100%. How does that work? What about the 80?
My objective, Ken, is to measure the accuracy of _your_ predictions. You claim 80% to 85% accuracy – which would be impressive if it turns out to be true. If it is, I’ll say so and happily say I was wrong. If it turns out to be 70%, I’ll say so, and still be impressed.
If, however, it turns out to be 50% or less – like, say, your predictions for 2012 (https://irishmansdiary.wordpress.com/2013/01/02/keep-predicting-and-youll-be-right-eventually/) – I’ll say your methodology does not work, and ask The Last Word and Today FM to please stop inviting you on, as you’re less accurate than I am at predicting the weather.
It is only your opinion and interpretation that claims I got 2012 incorrect. However 2012 customers bought my 2013 almanac and I generally sold greater numbers. I am not going to go back and analyse how you interpreted me wrongly for 2012. You would then access 2011 to prove me wrong – it is your agenda. What I can’t figure out is, why read/buy something you don’t like or is a source of irritation? No one is forcing you. Have you lost your freedom of choice? And have you decided you know better than others what to think and what to buy?
It is _not_ only my opinion, Ken. That’s the whole point. You made a number of predictions. They’re on record. You got many of them wrong. _Demonstrably_ wrong. Much more than 20% of them were wrong.
Click on the link. Look at the photo of Douglas, Cork. That was taken in what you said was going to be our best month! You said about June ““Serious rain day, 13th June, rest of the month good.” There was no rain on June 13th, but as for the rest of the month: wettest June on record, with widespread flooding.
So how exactly did I interpret you wrongly when you said June would be our second sunniest month, with only one serious rain day (June 13th), when that day was dry but the month was the wettest June on record?
As I said, it’s your obsession. I have already admitted I get about a quarter wrong because there are other factors involved in weather, but it is about 80% sun and moon positions in my opinion. However admitting that isn’t good enough for you, and you still imagine 20%=100%. Met Eireann also admit similar error but people accept that with grace. If everyone only dwelt on failures, there would never be any science whatsoever. Yes, I know the reasons certain weather systems miss altogether even though potential was there – and POTENTIAL is all I am EVER predicting – which is what weather forecasting is, and which I don’t think you understand. You have it in your head that I am predicting certainties, which is as far from the reality of my work as one can get.
But I won’t take part in your witch hunt. To me that’s the big issue, that it is so important to you to find fault, and single me out rather than Met Eireann. Is it because it is easier to pick on the little guy? Run a parallel blog on Met Eireann’s track record if you want to be taken seriously..
I don’t really care if you read my work or not, that is up to you, and I certainly don’t have to be answerable to you. Those demonstrating some interest in holding a scientific discussion are easy to talk to, but I don’t sense interest in that on your part. One can’t reason with, or explain things to, someone on the warpath.
I think what Ken is trying to say is that his method is a stand alone product, that doesn’t work very well if you try and compare it to reality. He has a very high accuracy rate, so long as you don’t count all the forecasts that are wrong. He’s not unique in this respect, most astrologers would prefer it if you don’t check up on their predictions. And if you do, you should keep it to yourself, or you’ll give the scam away. Isn’t that right Ken?
No, I said in January 2013 that a heatwave would come om 9 July and it did. I said 2012-13 would be a typical Irish winter followed by a cool spring, a very hot summer and a mild autumn, all of which came to pass. I said there would be little chance of a white Xmas (although I was misquoted by one reporter) and that January would start off cold then get mild (about now or in a couple of days time).
No astrologer would name a certain date you will receive an inheritance. There is nothing about moon, sun, repetitive orbits of planets and extrapolation that is not solid science.
Sir Isaac Newton was an astrologer, and he is the father of modern science. Astrology is not about your birth sign and love life. Ask an astrologer if you want to know what it is, don’t ask a scientist. In the same way, ask a doctor if you want to know what gynaecology is – don’t ask a bricklayer.
I HAVE admitted I get things wrong about a fifth of the time. So do most people.
As for giving secrets away, I have a free 230-page book on my methods I give away from my website http://www.predictweather.com. I am as transparent about my method as I can be. I do want others to try it for themselves.
“ir Isaac Newton was an astrologer,”
No, he wasn’t Ken. This has been pointed out to you several times. van Gent has looked into that claim fairly thoroughly (http://www.staff.science.uu.nl/~gent0113/astrology/newton.htm) & there’s no indication in Newton’s papers (the ones in the on-line Cambridge repository) that he studied astrology.
Pingback: An interesting couple of days ahead for #kenringwatch | Another Irishman's Diary
Pingback: #kenringwatch results for January. No earthquakes! | Another Irishman's Diary
What it’s very obvious now, as of Feb 11th, is that Ken was unable to predict the most memorable aspect of our Winter today, i.e. the procession of very deep storms with the substantial flooding across the British Isles….or if Ken queries the specifics, the SW (Limerick & Cork) and in the UK, most of the South.
There has been little in the way of COLD, little in the way of snow, bar some transitory showers in a cold W or NE airflow – hardly remarkable in an Irish winter. The months of Dec & Jan go down as MILD if not VERY MILD. They also go down as wet. The UK Met office said it has been the wettest January since 1767. Surely if you wanted to be a successful forecaster, and stand out from the crowd of scam artists that we know are out there, forecasting the wettest winter in 250+ years would get people’s attention about your ability!!!
For Ireland January was wetter than average (wettest since 2008-9 generally) with temperature above the long term average in most locations. I didn’t see any reference to that in Ken’s forecast. The lowest air temperature -3.8c.
So for January: “2014 could bring in cold temperatures of perhaps up to -10ºC in the north in the first 10 days of January. 4. Moderate snowfall possible (nothing is ever definite in weather forecasting) within a day or so of Jan 9th & 10th in midlands.”
I’m afraid very wrong. Have a look at December’s forecast….not so correct either. That’s two months down and into February the start has not been as Ken projected………
I suggest the accuracy is laboring to get anywhere near 50% but let’s wait for the final outcome.
Joe
Pingback: #kenringwatch results for February. | Another Irishman's Diary
ken i love reading your predictions
Joe, don’t you have better things to do than examine every sentence of my suggestions of potential? Farmers seem happy with my work. You are free to not read it. Woudn’t reading something one dislikes intensely say more about you than my work?
Ken, don’t you have better things to do than examine blogs for comments that mention your predictions (oh, they’re “suggestions of potential” now)? You are free to not read them. Wouldn’t reading something one dislikes intensely say more about you than the commenter?
Ken, I’m having a problem posting a reply…at least the lengthy one I want! Thank you for your reply – I’m working on my response..
Ken – Joe Whyte has emailed a reply, which I’ve posted below with his permission.
ken, i’m a farmer and i listened to youre predictions intently and to say i was happy would be very untrue, i think after youre recent predictions i think you should hang up the boots because all youre fooling is yourself.
Niall
Where are you farming? Other farmers who have bought my previous years’ almanacs have re-ordered for the 2015 version, available from my website [WHICH IS NOT BEING LINKED TO FROM THIS WEBSITE – Ed.] Maybe as you infer they are all deluded or perhaps my work does find some usefulness in the farming community. I said to expect rain in November and it arrived in buckets. I said to expect wintry cold only after 30 November and that has been the case. I said wintry temperatures will largely be finished in Ireland.by 20 January and that is still to come but seems to be on track.
What is the problem? If you don’t like my work why don’t you just stop reading it? I am doing my best to assist farmers. I would be the first to admit I don’t have all the answers – no one does. But to help me understand you, what predictions did you think were so off the mark that you have asked me to retire?
Ken
Reply from Joe Whyte, emailed directly to me for posting as WordPress apparently won’t allow long replies:
“Hi Ken.
I am surprised at your post! I do have “better things to do”, as you so eloquently put it, however I thought an analysis of your “suggestions of potential” would demonstrate the value I place on such public declarations. I would like nothing better than to see an accurate long-range forecast and forecaster so I can, along with those farmers you mention, rely upon such forecasts for my own planning.
I thought that a serious forecaster like yourself would welcome attention and the opportunity of others to validate and measure their success. Indeed, if you think I was harsh and biased toward criticism, then I would welcome the chance to review your forthcoming predictions for this part of the world for summer through to winter 2014?
You’ll have to explain how your “suggestions of potential” differ from the “forecasts” that you, and the media that quoted you, previously referred to?
In my examination of your “suggestions of potential” I had hoped to find that c.80% accuracy however I think even you would agree that on the sample examined the accuracy rate was well below expectation and, arguably, very wrong.
You claim a high, or relatively high, accuracy rate. I’m not examining your science but I do wish to examine your claim of success. Without concrete evidence to back it up, your claim is but a claim. It is unfounded.
Speaking of claims, maybe you could provide evidence the farmers that are happy with your forecast this past winter? Can’t be many from the flood-devastated parts of Ireland or Britain? I’d be happy to correspond with them or even meet them in my travels.
Maybe your accuracy is more evident to your locale however, in the absence of evidence to contrary and based on the small sample period examined, it doesn’t stand up to scrutiny here. However you can give me the opportunity to examine an extended sample if you wish and I’ll gladly report back on it?
I love the weather. I love its predictability and its unpredictability. The science of forecasting isn’t easy by professional or amateur meteorologists. I imagine you feel challenged on occasions but then maybe not? I don’t know! I do know that your success rate remains, for me, an unproven claim. It stands with others who you might not want to be associated with, e.g. Exactaweather (James Madden), Weatheraction (Piers Corbyn), Vantage Weather (Jonathan Powell), to name a few.
You must have read the Daily Express headlines or heard of them. We were told the worst winter in 100 years was coming with deep snows and severe cold. (Although, Piers Corbyn wasn’t quoted in that regard so I do him a dis-service there).
Some of those people concerned are now a laughing stock. They didn’t apologise for their very wrong forecasts. Instead they excused themselves on the basis the sun didn’t behave and therefore neither did the jet-stream. Well, if they can’t foresee the behaviour of our sun what’s the point of them trying long-range forecasting? So now their claims of accuracy have been exposed. We can safely ignore them next year!
If you’re so different then be open to having your forecasts validated and accept there will be unfavourable (or favourable) comments when they go badly wrong (or very right). I’ll be fair if you are fair.
I do have better things to do but if your forecasts prove themselves…then I’ll happily put them in my “better things to do” reading-list!
Thank you,
Joe
Pingback: As an aside… | Another Irishman's Diary
Good grief, is he peddling his bs in Ireland too? Here in NZ he claims to predict earthquakes as well. All codswallop, for which he’s been ridiculed, but there’s plenty of fools readily parted with their cash to make it worth his while to keep denigrating science and scientists. He wouldn’t know the scientific method if it hit him on the head.
http://www.3news.co.nz/Ken-Ring-Can-he-actually-predict-earthquakes/tabid/1160/articleID/202642/Default.aspx
And how about Met Eireann with their ‘cloudy with sunny spells’, which about covers EVERYTHING.
Or telling you it will be dry when it is already pouring.
When will someone out in Glasnevin clean those windows so they can at least accurately ‘predict’ what is happening now!
Or just use
http://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Leinster/D%C3%BAn_Laoghaire/
like I do?
Michael, no one has to read my work if they disagree with the theory behind it. It is not forced upon anyone against their will nor in everybody’s face every day like the Met Eireann forecasts.
Taxpayers do not foot my bill like they do Met Eireann so I am not accountable to anyone if I make an incorrect prediction. But it is a double standard that sees moaners and whingers attack my work without equal attack on Met Eireann when they get things wrong.
We have the same despicable behaviour in NZ by Don and his troublemaking mainstream science buddies. Over here at the beginning of the year the mainstream taxfunded metservices swore black and blue that an El Nino was coming. Accordingly many farmers made decisions based on incorrect information, expecting dry conditions which cost them dearly. In January of this year I went public saying the metservices were incorrect and an El Nino would not occur until next year. So far I have been correct.
I have also had a fair degree of success for this year with my Ireland almanac. I said no records would be broken this year and no extreme events would be likely. My 2014 book suggested that there would be more of a normal summer with no heat-waves, nor the extended spells of summery days in a row like Ireland had at the start of last July and even in August.. I said June and July would be warm and sunny but August would be very wet for some places in the east, and September would be mostly dry after the first week, and there is every sign of this coming about
It all bodes well for what I predict in the 500-page Weather Almanac for Ireland for 2015 available now on Amazon or from my website.
Next year is an interesting one for farmers. An El Nino down here has implications for the Gulf Stream which begins to again slow as it did in 2007 and 2012 which allows the jet stream to drift further south. It is all explained in the almanac. A standout month will be April 2015 with about 20 days rain free.
Pingback: #kenringwatch results for June, July and August! | Another Irishman's Diary
Ah lads, really! Why are ye all getting so riled up about this, My forecast is get up, open the curtains and that’s the weather. Live in the now you will all be happier. If people want to buy Ken’s book let them, if you believe Ken is a spoofer (as I do) pay him no heed.
Very true Eamonn, thanks for the voice of commonsense. I only write for those interested in this way of predicting weather. If one doesn’t like it, simply don’t read it, I DIDN’T WRITE IT FOR YOU. But our free monthly newsletter has 11,000 subscribing members and we sell about a thousand 500-page Ireland Weather Almanacs a year to Irish (mostly) farmers. The 2015 edition is available now from [a website that won’t be advertised here – Ed.] and is selling fast. So are our customers all deluded? According to the Ken-Ring-watch moderator of this forum, it seems yes. But what if he’s wrong?
The thing is, Ken – he isn’t wrong. Your predictions are being measured against what actually happened, and are being reported on. So far, up to September, you’re on 5.5 out of 21. 26% accuracy. Worse than the “coin toss” accuracy level mentioned by some:
http://sciblogs.co.nz/the-atavism/2010/11/19/ken-ring-cant-predict-the-weather/
http://www.sillybeliefs.com/ring-rc.html
Better than a six-sided die roll. though.
By the way – what was that whole cat palm reading thing about?
Well, easy to read what the critics say, those anonymous meteorologists masquerading behind nom de plumes. Silly beliefs? Ha ha, they are misogynists and white supremacists! Scriblogs? More government scientist global warmers receiving grants for a scam. I don’t take any notice of anyone except the same farmers who support me year after year. Cal palm reading? Oh, you didn’t get the joke? Everyone else did. It was a project by Penguin written for the humour shelves; New Age satire. Besides, I was only the front man; no royalties. But don’t let the truth spoil your preferred story.
Seems I touched a nerve, there, Ken.
“Global warmers”? You’re a climate-change skeptic, then?
Touched a nerve? It’s always hilarious when someone brings up something I took part in 16 years ago, and tries to hook that into some judgement about my present work. Really, how desperate can one get? So I contributed to a joke book once. So what? Do you also want to make a meal out of the time I accidentally broke a neighbour’s window when I was 9?
I am as sceptical about global warming as every single farmer that I have met. They, too, know all about cycles. As I am only in this business to help farmers I am interested in the real truth about weather and climate, which is what farmers tell me, not what computer geeks make models of to qualify for research funding,
Pingback: Ken Ring predicts the future | Sunny Spells
Ken, I’ve asked you before not to link to your website form here.
Yes I get that, But this website appears to be a project to denigrate my business and ruin my livelihood. The name of my business is the website. You wish that I do not defend myself whilst you have open slather. Perhaps if you ceased your attack on me, and stopped providing a forum for others to do the same, that that might be a good start?
This website is a project for me to write about whatever I want to write about, within the bounds of the law and good taste.
Your “predictions” getting reported as and when you like in the media, as if you were some sort of expert, and making money on the back of it, is something that pisses me off – so I write about it.
Your “predictions” are currently at around 26% accuracy (somewhere between a die roll and a coin toss), rather than the 85% accuracy you claim to have. You appear to have a problem when someone calls you out on that.
You are more than welcome to defend yourself in the comments sections here, as long as you don’t slander or abuse other people. You also have your own website – though no comments sections there, sadly.
Yes, I do have a problem when someone sets up a website to slander me by inferring I am taking money in a fraudulent manner. If people wish to pay for my services and products then they are choosing, by your suggestions, only to defraud only themselves. That is their responsibility, not mine. This is a free society. But your attack is one-sided. Yes I have my own website – but I have never attacked you or your vocation on it, and never would.
Excellent discussion, I have also had corresponded with Mr Ring about his witchcraft but it is great to see it documented that he is just pulling weather predictions out of the air – 25% accuracy … who is buying this rubbish.
Oh, so its witchcraft now?
Johnny Brazill tried to claim I had called for a white Xmas. Bollocks. I did not even mention snow, and few places, if any, had a white Xmas
The 2014 Ireland weather Almanac said, in the entry for 25 December, “High pressure to the west and low pressure to the north and east with a freshening westerly airflow. Overcast with frosts most districts although some brief sunny outbreaks likely in the southeast and milder in the far northwest. Some drizzle and rainy patches to the west and north but mostly dry to the east. Belfast : Overcast, isolated showers, frosts, possible sleety showers Dublin : Overcast and dull, frosts, mostly dry, some freezing drizzle patches likely Cork : Cloudy, dry and cold, frosts Galway : Overcast, frosts, light showers and drizzles, chance of overnight sleet and mists”.
So where does it say ‘snow’, Johnny? I know some radio and newspapers quote me out of context, but read what I actually wrote, not twisting one or two things to suit yourself to convince yourself that I am a witch. Ha ha, priceless!
In Ireland rain has come to most of the country in the past 24 hrs. This is due to clear over the next 4 days.
Pingback: #kenringwatch results for November, December and 2014! | Another Irishman's Diary